Where Capital Compounds: Miami’s Global Hub vs. Jupiter’s Inelastic Coastline
A calm, data-driven comparison for $5M+ buyers: Miami offers global liquidity and vertical growth; Jupiter–Palm Beach delivers engineered scarcity, lower density, and a tighter floor on long-run value. This is how price-per-foot, months of supply, conservation limits, and buyer-pool dynamics shape real returns—and how to choose the waterfront that compounds for you.
1) First principles: supply, demand, and who your future buyer will be
Supply (inelastic vs. elastic)
Jupiter–North Palm Beach corridor is bracketed by large protected tracts: ~10.5k acres at Jonathan Dickinson State Park, 569 acres at Juno Dunes, and 120 acres at the Jupiter Inlet Lighthouse Outstanding Natural Area—plus a countywide Natural Areas system exceeding 31,000 preserved acres. This is land permanently off‑market, keeping density low and future supply inelastic.
Built form & zoning: The Town of Jupiter’s single‑family R‑1 zoning is typically ~35 ft (two stories), with commercial districts commonly ~50–60 ft. Jupiter Inlet Colony is single‑family only and extremely low density. Even when demand rises, the area cannot easily “build up” to meet it.
Density (daily lived experience & pricing power)
Jupiter: ~21.6 sq mi of land and ~2,825 people per sq mi.
City of Miami: ~36.0 sq mi of land and ~12,284 people per sq mi.
Jupiter is roughly 4–5× less dense by design—scarcity that tends to support higher $/SF as capital competes for a smaller, quieter built environment.
Demand composition (who bids for your home at exit)
Miami is the U.S. entry point for Latin American wealth. In 2024, foreign buyers represented about 10% of South Florida residential dollar volume, with Miami‑Dade capturing ~65% of those foreign transactions; top countries included Argentina, Colombia, Brazil, Mexico, and Venezuela.
Palm Beach County demand skews more to domestic high‑income migration—especially New York, New Jersey, California, and Illinois—with Canada the largest international contributor. Households moving into Palm Beach County posted the highest average AGI (~$260k) in Southeast Florida, underscoring the “Wall Street South” end‑user base.
2) Price, liquidity, and volatility at the top end (latest quarterly reads)
Miami Beach & the Barrier Islands (Q3 2025)
Luxury condos (top 10%): median $6.40M; $2,383/SF; 18.9 months of supply; roughly 70% cash market‑wide.
Luxury single‑family (top 10%): median $21.5M; $3,404/SF; 35.7 months of supply; listing discount around 14%.
Read: deep global demand with active new‑development and resale channels—alongside a meaningful inventory cycle, especially on SF, which lengthens time‑to‑clear at the ultra‑tier.
Palm Beach (Town) (Q3 2025)
Luxury (top 10%): median $17.2M; $3,543/SF; 27.9 months of supply; 100% cash this quarter; thin quarterly samples make prints jumpy.
Single‑family overall: median $9.97M (+7.4% YoY).
Read: impossibly scarce island stock and full‑time wealth keep price levels firm; “thin‑market math” creates quarter‑to‑quarter noise, but the medium‑run floor is strong.
Implication for Jupiter & the North County coast
Jupiter / North Palm Beach / Palm Beach Gardens share the same supply mechanics (height caps, conservation adjacency, limited waterfront lots). That capped supply + affluent domestic in‑migration generally yields lower downside volatility and strong $/SF resilience for best‑in‑class waterfront.
3) Forward drivers: why supply elasticity matters more than ever
Pipeline risk (can new supply blunt returns?)
City of Miami shows roughly 34,000 multifamily units under construction metro‑wide, with ~14,000 inside city limits, plus a steady flow of condo launches. That’s what global hubs do—add units. It’s great for lifestyle optionality and resale liquidity, but it also means more competition at exit (especially for view‑dependent condos).
Jupiter–North Palm Beach can’t scale meaningfully; protected lands and modest heights are structural. Economic translation: high demand + very inelastic supply → steeper price response over multi‑year holds.
Who’s the marginal buyer five years out?
Miami: international capital reallocating out of LATAM/Europe plus U.S. movers—liquidity benefits, but sentiment is more exposed to FX, geopolitics, and the condo cycle.
Jupiter / North Palm Beach / Palm Beach Gardens: the Northeast–California–Midwest wealth corridor deepening roots in “Wall Street South”—stickier, end‑user demand anchored by schools, clubs, and year‑round use, reinforcing floors in softer national tapes.
4) Numbers that frame the lived economics
Physical context
Jupiter: ~21.6 sq mi land, ~2,825 ppl/sq mi; R‑1 height ~35 ft; immediate adjacency to 10.5k / 569 / 120 acres of protected lands and waterways. Expect persistent low density and extremely limited replenishment of waterfront stock.
Miami: ~36.0 sq mi land, ~12,284 ppl/sq mi; persistent vertical capacity and an active development culture. Expect liquidity and global depth—and an ongoing supply response.
Market structure
Palm Beach (Town) luxury: $3,543/SF; 27.9 MOS; 100% cash this quarter; small samples = noisier prints.
Miami Beach luxury condos: $2,383/SF; 18.9 MOS; ~70% cash; breadth of product. Luxury single‑family: $3,404/SF, 35.7 MOS.
Capital flows
Foreign share: South Florida ~10% of dollar volume in 2024; Miami‑Dade ~65% of those foreign purchases; Palm Beach much smaller foreign slice—consistent with a more domestic buyer base in North County.
Domestic wealth: Palm Beach County led on incoming household income (~$260k avg AGI for in‑movers); Florida ranks at the top nationally for net AGI inflows.
5) Decision lens for a $5M–$20M+ principal
Choose Miami if you want:
Maximum global liquidity and an international buyer pool at exit.
New‑development optionality (condo/hotel‑amenity ecosystems, branded product).
Acceptance of a more elastic supply curve and cyclicality (especially in condos) in exchange for gateway‑city upside.
Choose Jupiter–North Palm Beach if you want:
Capped supply (conservation + height limits) that promotes multi‑year price compounding for best‑in‑class waterfront.
A lower‑density daily rhythm and end‑user‑heavy buyer profile (Northeast/CA/Midwest) that often supports floor values in slower macro tapes.
6) Execution playbook
For Buyers
Underwrite irreplaceability: inlet minutes, view corridors, navigable depth. Pay up when a parcel’s traits are non‑replicable under current zoning and conservation.
Keep A/B targets live to retain optionality and tighten spreads.
Lead with certainty: cash cadence + inspection access + short‑fuse acceptance often beats price alone at the ultra‑tier.
For Sellers
Price to the data: use the latest MOS, $/SF, and listing‑discount prints for your exact submarket/tier.
Aim outreach at the real buyer pools: North County = domestic end‑users (NY/CA/NJ/IL); Miami = diversified international demand—sequence accordingly.
7) Bottom line
Jupiter–North Palm Beach behaves like a scarcity asset: smaller market, lower density by design, and vast adjacent preserves that structurally limit future supply—supporting capital durability over a multi‑year hold.
Miami behaves like a global gateway: inbound international capital, deep liquidity, and an active pipeline—strong upside with more supply response risk to model into exit timing.
Select Sources
Conservation & land constraints
Palm Beach County ERM — Natural Areas Program (31,000+ acres): https://discover.pbcgov.org/erm/Pages/Natural-Areas.aspx
Florida State Parks — Jonathan Dickinson State Park (acreage & map): https://www.floridastateparks.org/parks-and-trails/jonathan-dickinson-state-park
Palm Beach County ERM — Juno Dunes Natural Area: https://discover.pbcgov.org/erm/NaturalAreas/Pages/Juno-Dunes.aspx
Population, land area & density
U.S. Census — QuickFacts, City of Miami: https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/miamicityflorida
U.S. Census — QuickFacts, Town of Jupiter: https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/jupitertownflorida
Zoning context
Town of Jupiter — Code of Ordinances (height & districts): https://library.municode.com/fl/jupiter/codes/code_of_ordinances
