The Bears Club is a gated golf community of approximately 68 custom estate lots in Jupiter's interior, designed by Jack Nicklaus on 488 acres. Supply is structurally constrained: no comparable product exists in northern Palm Beach County by lot size, architectural covenant, or course access, and new inventory requires an existing lot to come to market. That constraint is the foundation of the price story this data tells.
The Complete Transaction Record
Forty-two sales, $392.3 million in volume, a price range from $1.825 million to $48 million. Those top-line numbers tell one story. The year-by-year breakdown tells another: 2022 produced zero transactions, the community's only calendar-year gap in the decade-long record; the year that followed produced its highest prices. A third data layer, the active listings and pending contracts on the market right now, tells a third story about where prices are heading.
Every Bears Club Transaction, 2015–2026
All 40 closed sales plotted chronologically by $/SF. Color indicates market phase.
Each point is one closed sale. The 2022 gap (zero transactions) is visible in the data. The post-2022 cluster represents a structurally higher price floor: only one post-2022 transaction has closed below $1,200/SF (148 Bears Club Drive, April 2024, $726/SF, a 13,780 SF estate with an unusual 9-bedroom configuration).
Note on 2016 avg $/SF: The $545/SF annual average reflects composition. Six of the eight 2016 transactions were cluster homes in the 400-series addresses (approximately 4,671–4,800 SF, $2.5–2.8M), which pull the annual average down relative to the estate home tier.
Note on 418 Bears Club Drive (July 2016): Two separate closed sale records appear at this address four days apart ($2,800,000 on July 1 and $2,600,000 on July 5). Both MLS records show different legal descriptions and zeroed-out parcel IDs, consistent with two attached units sharing a street address. The December 2023 resale at the same address is recorded as "Bears Club Golf Villas Condominium Unit 4," confirming the attached/condo structure. Both 2016 records are included in the dataset; the $200,000 price difference between the two units is noted.
Note on 2025 avg $/SF: The $1,935/SF annual average is significantly influenced by the $48M sale at 152 Bears Club Drive ($2,938/SF). Excluding that transaction, the three 2025 closes averaged $1,434/SF, still the community's second-highest annual average and consistent with the broader post-2022 repricing.
The Pre-COVID Market, 2015–2019: Establishing the Address
The Bears Club's pre-COVID transaction record, 20 sales from January 2015 through December 2019, generating $84.7 million at an average of $633 per square foot, reflects a market that was active but not yet repriced. Estate homes traded in the $5.3 million to $8.3 million range on the upper end. The community's largest home (191 Bears Club Drive, 12,555 SF) closed at $7.55 million in June 2017, at $601 per square foot. The same home today, in the same condition, would trade at a materially different number.
Two Address Tiers Within Bears Club Main
Estate Homes: 100–200 Series
Cluster Homes: 400 Series
The 2016 sales record illustrates the composition challenge most clearly. Eight transactions closed that year, but six of them were cluster homes at 400-series addresses, trading at $520–$599/SF in the $2.5–$2.8 million range. The four estate home closes in 2015 and 2017 cleared at $579–$926/SF in the $5.3–$8.3 million range: 115 Bears Club ($5.65M, $579/SF) and 170 Bears Club ($5.31M, $809/SF) in 2015; 103 Bears Club ($8.3M, $926/SF) and 191 Bears Club ($7.55M, $601/SF) in 2017. These are not the same buyer, the same product, or the same market, and the annual average blends them inappropriately if taken at face value.
Pre-COVID $/SF by Transaction (2015–2019)
19 sales. Estate homes (dark) vs. cluster/villa-style homes (gray).
Estate homes (100–200 series): simple avg $736/SF (volume-weighted $724/SF). Cluster homes (400 series): avg $558/SF. Both segments appreciated substantially in the post-2022 era.
The standout in the pre-COVID record is 103 Bears Club Drive, a 5-bedroom, 8,961 SF home on a 0.9-acre lot, built in 2016, that closed at $8.3 million ($926/SF) in March 2017. That $/SF figure was an outlier at the time, running 30–40% above the community's concurrent estate home transactions. It was not an outlier relative to where the market would go. Seven years later, in March 2024, the same address sold again for $17 million.
The Transition Years, 2020–2021: The First Repricing
Eight transactions between January 2020 and August 2021 produced $59.5 million at an average of $795 per square foot, a 26% increase over the pre-COVID average in under two years. The 2020 acceleration was the first leg of what would become a structural repricing. Six sales in a single calendar year was the community's highest annual transaction count on record at that point, and the price architecture was shifting: four of those six closed above $6.8 million, and the year's largest transaction was 161 Bears Club Drive at $10 million, the community's first-ever eight-figure close.
The 2021 transactions completed the pre-gap arc. 111 Bears Club Drive closed at $8.75 million in May ($801/SF). 166 Bears Club Drive closed at $8.5 million in August, at $1,079 per square foot, the first time any Bears Club property had traded above $1,000/SF. That number would become the community's entry point in the post-2022 market.
When 166 Bears Club Drive closed at $8.5 million in August 2021, the $1,079/SF figure represented a 17% premium over any prior transaction in the community's MLS record. It was either an outlier or an early indication that the Bears Club's price ceiling had shifted. What happened in 2023, when the market reopened after the 2022 gap at $1,201/SF as its entry point, confirmed it was the latter.
The 2022 Gap: Zero Transactions
The Bears Club recorded zero closed sales in calendar year 2022. This is the only complete calendar-year gap in the community's decade-long transaction record. It does not indicate a market in distress. It indicates a market with more potential sellers reassessing their position than buyers willing to pay at then-current levels, in a broader environment where rising interest rates were slowing luxury transaction volume across South Florida.
The mechanism matters for interpretation. The properties didn't lose value in 2022; they simply didn't transact. The sellers who chose not to sell in 2022 and waited for 2023 or 2024 were, in most cases, correct to do so. The four transactions that closed in 2023 ranged from $5.6 million to $19.8 million at $1,201–$1,470/SF. The 2022 gap was not a correction. It was an inventory withholding that preceded a repricing.
The Repricing, 2023–2026: What the Market Has Assigned
Fourteen transactions between January 2023 and February 2026 have produced $248.1 million, nearly triple the community's entire pre-2022 annual run rate. The average $/SF for this cohort is $1,536. The range runs from $726/SF to $2,938/SF. Every transaction except one has closed at $1,200/SF or above.
The Repricing: Avg $/SF by Year
Annual average $/SF, all Bears Club transactions. The 2022 gap and subsequent acceleration are visible in the data.
2025 bar reflects $1,935/SF annual average including the $48M outlier at 152 Bears Club Drive. Dashed line shows $1,434/SF, the 2025 average excluding that transaction. Both figures are noted; neither is more "correct," but the distinction is material for buyer comparables.
The one post-2022 exception to the $1,200+/SF floor is 148 Bears Club Drive, which closed at $10 million ($726/SF) in April 2024. That property is a 13,780 SF estate on a 1.25-acre lot built in 2001, the oldest and largest home in the post-2022 dataset. Its nine-bedroom configuration, age, and size (which mathematically compresses per-foot pricing on large properties) explain the deviation. It is not evidence of a sub-$1,000/SF market at Bears Club; it is a specific transaction reflecting the discount the market applies to large, dated homes requiring capital investment.
162 Bears Club Drive has now appeared in the transaction record three times: $7,800,000 (Mar 2020) → $14,500,000 (Oct 2023) → $15,292,470 (Dec 2024). The same property produced $7.49M in appreciation across two resales in four years.
118 Bears Club Drive closed February 27, 2026 at $41,000,000, the community's second-highest sale on record. The property was first listed in September 2019 at $21.9M, relisted multiple times at up to $44M, and sold in 29 days at its final ask of $44M with an 93.2% list-to-sale ratio. Its close is the clearest example in this dataset of a seller whose price thesis was correct but whose timing was early.
Repeat Sales: The Appreciation Record
Three properties in the Bears Club dataset have sold more than once since 2015, providing the clearest arm's-length evidence of appreciation within the community. Two of those, 103 Bears Club Drive and 162 Bears Club Drive, represent the most instructive case studies in the record.
The 103 Bears Club Drive story covers the full arc: a 2017 purchase at $926/SF, already above the community's contemporary average, followed by a 2024 sale at $1,868/SF. The property was built in 2016 (one year old at first sale) and has been renovated since. The $8.7 million gross gain over seven years is not purely passive appreciation; it includes capital improvement. But the $/SF gain of +$942 across a market that moved from $700/SF average to $1,517/SF average captures what happens when a well-positioned asset holds its position in a repricing market.
The 162 Bears Club Drive record is the more analytically useful case. Three arm's-length sales on the same 9,865 SF, 2010-vintage home in under five years: $7.8M → $14.5M → $15.29M. The March 2020 buyer paid $791/SF into a market no one had repriced yet. The October 2023 buyer paid $1,470/SF, a figure that was, at that moment, the community's second-highest $/SF on record. The December 2024 buyer paid $1,550/SF, a further 5.4% premium in 14 months on the same property. Each successive buyer has been correct about the directional trend, and each paid more for the confidence of doing so.
The $48 Million Record: 152 Bears Club Drive
On February 18, 2025, 152 Bears Club Drive closed at $48,000,000. It is the highest residential sale price ever recorded at The Bears Club, the highest in Jupiter's MLS history, and by a significant margin the highest price-per-square-foot achieved by any estate in the community at $2,938/SF. The property was listed in October 2024 at $58 million, went under contract in 71 days, and sold for cash at an 82.8% list-to-sale ratio.
Several aspects of this transaction are worth examining carefully. The property is non-waterfront, positioned on a golf course interior lot. The $2,938/SF record was not achieved on the community's most sought-after lot type. It was achieved on a property built four years before the sale, designed and finished to a specification that the Bears Club market had not previously seen at scale: 25,518 total square feet including a resort-style pool complex, lap pool, fitness center, salon, spa, golf simulator, and multiple entertainment venues on 2.4 acres. The record is partly an address premium, partly a spec premium, and partly what happens when a finished product has essentially no peer comparables.
The gap between the $48 million record and the community's next-highest sale has narrowed substantially. In February 2026, 118 Bears Club Drive closed at $41 million: a 23,029 SF, 7BR estate on 2.91 acres built in 2010. That close reduces the gap from the record to the next transaction from $28.2 million to $7 million. There are now two Bears Club transactions above $40 million, which tells you something different about the community's ultra-tier than a single outlier would: there is a market at this level, not just a single event. The more representative post-2022 Bears Club estate transaction is in the $13.4–$17 million range, at $1,316–$1,868/SF, on 9,000–10,000 SF of living area. That is the market the data actually supports.
The $48M close at 152 Bears Club and the $41M close at 118 Bears Club together establish a two-transaction ultra-tier that validates the community's price ceiling while remaining distinct from the standard estate market. The relevant data point for a buyer evaluating a $13–17M Bears Club estate is neither of those figures. It is the range produced by 103, 124, 150, 158, and 162 Bears Club in 2024–2026, at $1,316–$1,868/SF. The record sales prove the address. The standard resale comps set the price.
Top 10 Sales by Price
The ten highest-priced Bears Club transactions in MLS history, 2015–2026.
The $48M record at #1 is now 17% above the #2 sale ($41M at 118 Bears Club Drive, Feb 2026), a dramatic compression of the outlier gap. The #3 through #10 range ($12M–$19.8M) represents the community's established estate tier and provides the most relevant comparable set for current buyers.
The Market Right Now
The closed transaction record is backward-looking by definition. The three properties currently under contract and the nine active listings on the market as of March 2026 are where the next chapter of Bears Club pricing is being written. Two of the pending contracts are repeat sales on properties that already appear in this dataset, and the asking prices represent step-changes from their prior closes that, if confirmed, will reset the community's non-outlier comparable set.
The 136 and 124 Bears Club Drive contracts are the most significant forward indicators in the current dataset. Both are repeat sales on the same properties that transacted in 2023 and 2024. If either closes anywhere near its asking price, it would move the non-outlier $/SF ceiling from $1,868 (103 BCDr, Mar 2024) to $2,067–$2,221. That is not a marginal shift. It is a 10–19% step-change in the comp set that every active listing and every potential seller in the community will reference.
The active listing inventory spans a wider range than the closed transaction record has seen in the post-2022 era, from $7.4M (cluster product, 542 DOM) to $47.9M (estate home, 3 DOM). The upper tier (four listings between $25.75M and $47.9M) is pricing toward and in some cases above the $48M record's $/SF of $2,938. The entry tier (135 BCDr at $12.9M, 45 DOM) represents the most accessible current price point for the estate home tier.
Negotiation Context: Days on Market and Pricing
List-to-sale ratios at Bears Club are widely misread. The post-2022 average of 88.4% sounds like buyers have meaningful negotiating room, more than the pre-COVID 94.2% average. The average obscures what actually determines your position. Well-priced modern product in this market clears quickly and close to ask. Overpriced or dated product either discounts significantly or sits until the seller adjusts. The DOM number tells you which situation you're walking into before you make an offer.
List-to-Sale Ratio and Days on Market by Market Era
Pre-COVID · 2015–2019
average list-to-sale ratio · 20 sales
Post-2022 · 2023–2026
average list-to-sale ratio · 14 sales
The split within the post-2022 cohort is the operative data point. The eight properties that sold within 90 days averaged a 93.2% list-to-sale ratio. The six that took longer averaged 83.1%. DOM is not just a marketing metric at this tier. It is the single best predictor of how much room exists in a negotiation. A property at 30 DOM is a different negotiation than the same property at 200 DOM, regardless of the asking price.
One pattern holds across all eras: properties with unusual characteristics (large footprint combined with older vintage, non-standard bedroom count, or significant required capital investment) consistently discount more and take longer. 148 BCDr (9BR, built 2001, 161 DOM, 91.7% L/S) and 185 BCDr (187 DOM, 70.7% L/S, listed at $21.9M and sold at $15.49M) are the post-2022 examples. The discount isn't bearish on the community; it's the market pricing in the renovation premium the next buyer will spend.
Bottom Line
The intro posed two questions. Here is what the data says.
If you are buying: the closed comp set establishes a floor of $1,434–$1,868 per square foot on standard estate product. Your negotiating position is not determined by the market-wide average. It is determined by how long the specific property has been listed. Sub-90-day properties at Bears Club average 93% of ask. Properties past 180 days average 83%. Check DOM before you frame an offer.
If you are selling: the closed record supports $1,500–$1,868 per square foot today. Two pending contracts at 136 and 124 Bears Club Drive are testing $2,067–$2,221 per square foot. Whether you price to the closed record now or wait for those contracts to confirm is the only timing decision that materially changes your outcome in the current market.
For buyers at Bears Club: price against the closed record, not the pending asks. The two pending repeat sales at 136 and 124 BCDr are asking $2,221/SF and $2,067/SF respectively, and neither has closed. Your comp anchor is $1,434–$1,868/SF. DOM is your leverage signal: under 90 days means limited room; past 180 days means the seller has already absorbed the cost of waiting and is negotiable.
For sellers at Bears Club: prepare for a 90-day process and price to the closed comp set. Every property that cleared in under 90 days in the post-2022 era was priced at or below the then-current comp set at listing. Price above it and you enter a different cohort: one that averages 83% of ask and frequently withdraws. If 136 or 124 BCDr confirm near ask in the next 60–90 days, the floor shifts to $2,000+/SF. If your timeline allows, that confirmation is worth waiting for.
On the 88.4% average list-to-sale ratio: it is misleading as a negotiating benchmark. The post-2022 Bears Club market is not uniformly 88.4%. It is two markets: well-priced modern product closing at 93%+ in under 90 days, and overpriced or dated product discounting to 83% or less after 180+ days. Which market you are in depends on the ask, not the address.
Scope: All 42 closed residential sale transactions at The Bears Club, Jupiter, FL recorded in BeachesMLS between January 2015 and February 2026. This report covers properties with subdivision names containing "BEARS CLUB" (excluding "BEARS CLUB VILLAS CONDO," "BEARS CLUB GOLF VILLAS CONDO," and similar villa-designated subdivisions). Trump National Jupiter, Ritz Carlton Golf Club & Spa, and Eagle Tree communities are excluded entirely. See the Bears Club Villas buyer's guide for the villa product analysis.
Data source: BeachesMLS (Beaches Multiple Listing Service), extracted March 2026. All 42 closed residential sale transactions at The Bears Club, Jupiter, FL, January 2015 through February 2026. This report covers Bears Club main estate homes only. Bears Club Villas and Trump National Jupiter / Ritz Carlton Golf Club properties are separate communities with distinct pricing and HOA structures. Data contains no records from any other community or submarket.
Closed sales only. This report analyzes closed transactions. The Bears Club listing history includes properties that were listed, in some cases years before the market reached their asking prices, but did not result in a sale. Those listings are excluded here. A separate article examines the full listing history, including the sellers who listed early and were eventually vindicated by the repricing: [link to be added: "The Listings That Didn't Sell: Bears Club's Unrealized Decade"]
$/SF calculations: All $/SF figures use the MLS "Sold Price/SqFt" field, calculated against MLS "SqFt - Living" (enclosed conditioned space). Total SF figures (including covered outdoor areas) are referenced in narrative where available but are not used for $/SF calculations.
Address tiers: "Estate homes" refers to properties at 100–200 series addresses on Bears Club Drive (custom SFH on lots of 0.81–2.40 acres). "Cluster homes" refers to properties at 400-series addresses (attached or semi-attached product, 3,225–4,800 SF living area, higher HOA per unit reflecting shared amenity costs). Both are included in aggregate figures; tier distinctions are noted in analysis.
103 Bears Club Drive SF discrepancy: The 2017 sale record shows 8,961 SF living area; the 2024 record shows 9,100 SF, a 139 SF difference likely reflecting an addition or remeasurement. Both figures are sourced from their respective MLS records and used for their respective $/SF calculations.
Repeat sales appreciation: Gross appreciation figures are based on sale prices only and do not account for capital improvements, renovation costs, carrying costs, closing costs, or financing. These are gross price changes, not net investment returns.
162 Bears Club Drive exact price: The December 2024 sale closed at $15,292,470, the MLS-recorded figure. Prior references in this report to "$15.3M" are rounded for readability; the exact figure is used in the repeat sales analysis.
118 Bears Club Drive: closed February 27, 2026 at $41,000,000. Listed September 2019 at $21.9M, relisted November 2021 at $30M rising to $42M, relisted June 2024 at $42M (withdrawn April 2025), relisted November 2025 at $44M. Sold in 29 days at 93.2% of final list price. The property is 23,029 SF living area, 7BR, built 2010, on 2.91 acres. The 2026 close validates the seller's original 2019 price thesis: the market simply required five years to reach it.
119 Bears Club Drive: The January 2015 close ($5,375,000, 8,251 SF, $651/SF) was included in the MLS dataset but was absent from earlier versions of this analysis due to a data extraction error. It is included in the current dataset and all figures reflect its inclusion.
BeachesMLS (Beaches Multiple Listing Service): Primary data source for all transaction records, list prices, sale prices, square footage, bedroom counts, lot sizes, and days on market. Data exported via Spark API, March 2026. MLS records are agent-reported and subject to occasional measurement discrepancies; notable discrepancies are noted in this report.
Palm Beach County Property Appraiser (pbcgov.com/papa): Secondary source for parcel IDs, lot dimensions, legal descriptions, and assessed values where referenced. PAPA data and MLS data occasionally differ on year built and square footage due to different measurement conventions; MLS figures are used for all $/SF calculations in this report.
$/SF definition: All $/SF figures in this report are calculated against MLS "SqFt - Living" (conditioned, enclosed living area) unless otherwise stated. Total SF figures (which include covered outdoor areas, garages, and non-conditioned space) are referenced in narrative context only and are not used for any comparative analysis.
Status codes: C = Closed (completed sale). A = Active listing. E = Expired (listing expired without a sale). L = Withdrawn (seller withdrew the listing). P = Pending (under contract, not yet closed).
Scope exclusions: Trump National Jupiter (formerly Ritz-Carlton Golf Club and Spa), Eagle Tree at Trump National, Bears Club Villas Condominium, and Bears Club Golf Villas Condominium are excluded from all figures. These communities share the Bears Club Drive address corridor but are distinct products with separate HOAs, pricing structures, and market dynamics.
