This report covers all 23 closed sales at $5M and above in North Palm Beach (city limits) in calendar year 2025, sourced from BeachesMLS. For each transaction we track sale price, price per square foot, days on market, and list-to-sale ratio versus original ask, then segment by community, waterfront access type, and construction era. Two Lost Tree transactions account for 44.6% of total volume; a sensitivity chart below shows exactly how those two sales distort the headline numbers.
The $97.5M sale at Old Harbour Road and the $6.5M sale at Ascott Road exist in the same municipal dataset. They exist in different markets.
How Two Sales Distort the Headline Numbers
Mean price collapses 40% without the two Lost Tree sales. Median $/SF barely moves (−3.6%), confirming it is outlier-resistant and the correct measure for cross-market comparison. DOM increases because the fast-closing Lost Tree transactions pulled the all-sample average down. All other sections in this report use the full 23-sale dataset.
Nine sales totaling $240.7M from two gated communities. Lost Tree Village (2 sales, $152.5M, $5,344 median $/SF) operates at a different level than Old Port Village (7 sales, $88.2M, $1,779 median $/SF). Within Old Port, the spread is wide: 11432 Turtle Beach Road commanded $4,078/SF while 926 Village Road cleared at $1,293/SF after 358 days and a 40% reduction.
LT = Lost Tree Village. OP = Old Port Village. 0 DOM indicates off-market or MLS-recorded 0 DOM; treated as off-market per methodology.
LT = Lost Tree Village (green bars). OP = Old Port Village (teal bars). Bar length = $/SF relative to $5,458 maximum. Full data in desktop view.
Build year matters less than location in this tier. Pre-1980 homes averaged $2,557/SF, but the variance is enormous: irreplaceable Intracoastal frontage at Turtle Beach Road and Church Lane commanded $3,300–$4,100/SF, while 926 Village Road sat for nearly a year and sold at 60% of ask.
No homes built between 1980 and 1999 traded at $5M+ in this sample. The 2000–2014 cohort follows the same pattern: prime Old Port waterfront above $2,500/SF, secondary addresses below $1,800. The two 2015+ sales are the Lost Tree mega-transactions, which reflect trophy scarcity more than construction vintage.
Across all cohorts, pre-1980 inventory without updated roof and impact windows faces buyer resistance and insurance eligibility pressure. Seawall, impact windows, roof, and electrical should be underwritten alongside acquisition price.
On prime parcels, move fast and pay close to ask. The $97.5M Old Harbour Road sale closed in 1 day. 12032 End sold off-market. Hesitation costs you the property. Exception: dated Old Port inventory (pre-1980, unrenovated) offers real negotiation room.
Lost Tree waterfront: $5,000+/SF. Prime Old Port Intracoastal: $2,500–$4,100/SF. Secondary Old Port: $1,500–$1,800/SF. These are three different markets inside one tier. Using the $97.5M anchor to justify aspirational pricing on a $7M listing produces the 926 Village Road outcome: a year on market and 40% off ask.
Outside Lost Tree and Old Port, the $5M+ market is a buyer's market. The 50-day median DOM is misleading: 835 Country Club Drive closed in 1 day; 2138 Ascott Road took 524.
"Distressed" = properties that sold at below 65% of original ask after 400+ DOM. $/SF appears high because both were recent construction on larger lots; the discount was entirely in the gap between list and sale price.
Note: Distressed $/SF appears high because both properties were recent construction on large lots; the discount was entirely in the gap between list and sale price, not the $/SF figure.
Village / Country Club is the strongest micromarket in the value tier: seven sales, 35-day average DOM, 89.8% L/S. New construction at 835 Country Club Drive and 525 Greenway Drive both traded in a single day at 96–98% of ask. The outlier is 736 Lagoon Drive at $888/SF, the lowest in the dataset, which reflects a size discount: at 7,992 SF it is the largest home in the value tier, and large homes consistently trade at lower per-square-foot prices.
Seminole Landing ($1,667 median $/SF, 95.1% L/S) commands a gated-community premium. The two distressed sales at Ascott Road and Rolling Green (463-day average DOM, 57.8% average L/S) represent pricing errors, not market conditions.
Bar length = $/SF relative to $1,564 maximum in this group. Note the tight $/SF range ($1,127–$1,564) vs the wide DOM range (1–70 days).
Red bars = properties that sold below 65% of original ask after 400+ DOM. Note: high $/SF on distressed properties reflects recent construction on large lots; the discount appeared in the list-to-sale gap, not the $/SF figure.
One closed $5M+ sale in all of 2025. Nine active listings. A commonly cited balanced range is 5–7 months of supply. Harbour Isles has 108. This is not a soft market. It is a market where supply has overwhelmed demand by an order of magnitude. Properties at $994–$1,054/SF are functionally interchangeable. Every new listing that enters without a corresponding sale makes the problem worse for every existing seller in the community.
All 23 sales were waterfront. Non-waterfront inventory does not reach $5M in North Palm Beach. Within waterfront, pricing separates by access quality: direct Intracoastal ($1,400–$2,500/SF in value tier), canal and wide-water ($1,000–$1,400/SF). Dock utility (draft depth, bridge clearance, wake exposure) and seawall condition are the variables that separate correctly priced listings from stale ones.
Harbour Isles: open at 85–90% of ask. Nine active listings against one closed sale gives you leverage that does not exist anywhere else in NPB. Properties over 120 DOM anywhere in the value tier: open at 80–85%. The Ascott (51% L/S) and Rolling Green (65% L/S) sales prove the floor.
Harbour Isles: price 5–8% below the lowest active competitor. Eight other listings compete for a buyer pool that absorbed one unit in 2025. Village / Country Club: price within 3% of recent comps and expect a 30–60 day sale. The blended NPB median of $1,494/SF has no pricing relevance for any individual community.
Two Markets, One Decision
Bottom Line
North Palm Beach has one ZIP code and two real estate markets operating inside it simultaneously. Lost Tree and Old Port Village are a seller's market at 2.7 months of supply. The rest of the city is a buyer's market at 22.3 months. Neither can be priced off the other. Every offer, listing price, and negotiation strategy in North Palm Beach should start from the correct peer set, not the municipal aggregate.
For buyers targeting Lost Tree or Old Port Village: At 2.7 months of supply, prime parcels move fast and off-market. The $97.5M Old Harbour Road sale closed in one day. Hesitation costs you the property. The exception is dated Old Port inventory (pre-1980, unrenovated), which offers real negotiation room.
For buyers in the rest of North Palm Beach: At 22.3 months of supply, you have leverage that does not exist in the gated communities. Properties past 120 DOM anywhere in the value tier: open at 80 to 85% of ask. Harbour Isles at 108 months of supply is the most buyer-favorable condition in the dataset.
For all sellers in North Palm Beach: The $342M headline and the $1,494 blended median have no pricing relevance for any individual property. Price to your actual comp set: Lost Tree waterfront at $5,000+/SF, prime Old Port Intracoastal at $2,500 to $4,100/SF, Village/Country Club at $1,100 to $1,600/SF. Using the wrong peer set produces the 926 Village Road outcome: a year on market and 40% off ask.
Scope: North Palm Beach, Florida (city limits). Single-family detached homes only. Closed sales at $5,000,000 or above. Calendar year 2025.
Data Source: BeachesMLS.
Exclusions: Two sales excluded from all metrics: 12058 Turtle Beach Road and 756 Harbour Isles Court (anomalous MLS pricing data). All 23 included sales are single-family detached waterfront properties.
Definitions: "DOM" = cumulative days on market. "L/S ratio" = sold price / original list price (not most-recent ask, so price reductions are reflected in the ratio). "Price reduction" = final list price more than 1% below original list price.
Calculations: Months of supply = active listings / (annual sales / 12). MLS-only volume (excluding two 0-DOM sales): $269.8M across 21 sales.
Off-Market Sales: Two 0-DOM sales included in all metrics: 12032 End ($55M) and 11279 Old Harbour Road ($17.25M), treated as off-market.
Transaction data: BeachesMLS closed sales data, calendar year 2025, North Palm Beach city limits, $5,000,000+.
Active listing inventory: BeachesMLS as of report date.
