The dataset covers all expired residential listings (status E) in the Town of Palm Beach from January 2025 through March 2026, sourced from BeachesMLS via Spark API. For 31 of the 180, we match the specific address and unit number to a subsequent closed sale in the same dataset, creating a verified lifecycle: original ask, price cuts during the expired period, relist, eventual close, total days on market, and total discount from the first asking price. The 31 verified matches are a conservative floor; additional expired listings may have sold off-market or after the dataset's cutoff date.
Three Outcomes
Every expired listing on Palm Beach island falls into one of three categories. Of the 180 in this dataset, 31 (17%) can be verified as eventually relisted and sold at the same address and unit. Forty-eight (27%) are back on the market right now as active listings, attempting to find a buyer for the second or third time. And 101 (56%) have no matching closed sale and no active listing in the current MLS data at the same unit: some may have sold off-market, some may sell after this dataset's cutoff, and some may have been withdrawn permanently. The 31 verified matches are a conservative count; the true number of expired-then-sold is likely higher as additional properties close after March 2026.
The 31 verified matches are the most instructive, because they let us measure the full cost of the initial pricing mistake. These sellers entered the market at an asking price the market rejected, sat for a median of 207 days before expiring, then relisted and sat for additional months before finally closing. The median total discount from original ask to eventual sale price: 21.7%. At $5M and above, the median discount was 22%.
The pattern is consistent across every segment we measured. Single-family homes (n=9) carried a median 15.8% discount at 307 total DOM. Condos (n=21) carried a median 23.8% discount at 310 total DOM. The $1M-$3M tier, the $3M-$5M tier, the $5M-$10M tier, and the $10M+ tier all show discounts of 15-28% and total DOM of 224-366 days. No price range, no property type, and no neighborhood escaped the penalty. The data does not support the "my property is different" defense.
31 Verified Expired-Then-Sold Listings
Source: BeachesMLS via Spark API. 31 unit-verified expired-to-closed pairs. Discount = (original ask - sale price) / original ask. Conservative count; additional matches may close after dataset cutoff.
The Full Lifecycle
The table below breaks the expired-then-sold lifecycle by price tier. The $5M-$10M segment carries the longest total DOM (366 days median), while the $10M+ segment shows the shortest (224 days). The $10M+ result is counterintuitive: ultra-luxury sellers appear more willing to accept a meaningful concession and close rather than endure a second expiration cycle. The $1M-$3M tier shows the highest rate of price cuts during the expired period (10 of 11 cut before expiring), suggesting these sellers were more responsive to market feedback but still unable to price correctly.
Source: BeachesMLS via Spark API, 31 unit-verified matches. Carry cost estimated at 2.5% annually on sale price over total DOM. Small samples per tier; directional.
Did Cutting Help?
Of the 180 expired listings, 59% cut price at least once before expiring (average cut: 10.5%). The remaining 41% held their original ask through expiration. Among the 31 verified matches, cutting before expiry produced a modestly better discount: 21.3% median for cutters vs. 23.4% for holders. On a $5M property, 2.1 percentage points is approximately $105,000, which is real money. But the cutters also sat slightly longer (310 vs. 298 total DOM), which partially offsets the price advantage through additional carrying costs.
The honest read: cutting during an expiration cycle produces a marginal price improvement at the cost of signaling to the market that the property is in retreat. Whether that tradeoff is worthwhile depends on the individual property's daily carrying cost. On a $2M condo at $137/day in carrying costs, the 12 extra days cost $1,644, well below the $42,000 price benefit. On a $10M estate at $685/day, the math is tighter. Neither strategy produced outcomes close to what pricing correctly on day one delivers: 44-day median DOM at 11% concession vs. 310-day median DOM at 22% concession.
The expiration penalty is not the discount. It is the time. A 22% discount from original ask is only modestly worse than the 15-20% concession a 15-25% cushion seller accepts in the normal Pricing Cushion framework. The difference is 266 additional days: 266 days of carrying costs, 266 days of stale-listing stigma, 266 days during which the seller's capital was locked in a non-performing asset. On a $5M property at 2.5% annual carrying cost, 266 extra days costs $91,000 in direct expenses before the concession is even calculated.
The Real Cost of Expiring
Across the 31 verified matches, the median individual carrying cost was $76,000. At $10M+, the median was $268,000. At $1M-$3M, the median was $23,000. These are not theoretical figures; they are property tax, insurance, and maintenance paid during months the property sat unsold, plus the opportunity cost of capital that could have been deployed elsewhere.
But carrying cost is only the visible expense. The invisible cost is the stale-listing stigma that follows the property into its next cycle. Every agent on Palm Beach island tracks DOM. A property that expired after 200 days and relisted carries a market perception that the relisting price, however corrected, is still negotiable. The verified data confirms this: even after relisting at a reduced price, these properties closed at a median of roughly 88% of their new ask. The market applied an additional discount on top of the correction the seller already made. The total concession from original ask to final close is cumulative, not resetting.
DOM Distribution of 180 Expired Listings
Source: BeachesMLS via Spark API. 180 expired residential listings, Palm Beach island, Jan 2025 - Mar 2026.
That is the per-property median across the 31 verified matches. At $10M+, it was $268,000. These are direct expenses paid during market time that could have been avoided. A companion analysis of 306 closed sales on Palm Beach island during the same period (The Pricing Cushion) shows that sellers who priced within 10-15% of clearing value and held firm closed in a median of 44 days at 89% of ask. The math is straightforward: a $10M seller who prices correctly on day one avoids approximately $250,000+ in carrying costs and closes at a similar net to the expired seller who spent a year correcting to the same number.
48 Are Back Right Now
Of the 180 expired listings, 48 are currently relisted as active on the MLS (verified by address and unit number). These sellers are attempting to sell for the second or third time. The median DOM on the expired listing before it failed was 216-244 days depending on price tier. The MLS clock on the relist has started over, but every buyer's agent on the island can see the prior listing history.
The 48 relisted properties span the full price spectrum. Nineteen are condos under $3M (average 216 expired DOM). Eleven are condos in the $3M-$5M range (average 230 expired DOM). Nine are in the $5M-$10M range, predominantly single-family (average 244 expired DOM). And nine are $10M+ (eight single-family, average 243 expired DOM). The higher-price relists carry longer prior-expired histories, which means the stale-listing signal is strongest where the stakes are highest.
For buyers, these relisted properties represent potential value. The sellers have already demonstrated pricing flexibility by accepting an expiration and relisting. The verified data says the eventual sale price for expired-then-sold properties is a median 22% below the original ask. If you are evaluating a relisted property, that benchmark frames your negotiation.
If Your Listing Has Expired
Relisting After an Expiration
Bottom Line
The 180 expired listings in this dataset are the pricing cushion report's correction territory brought to life. These sellers entered the market above the price the market would accept, sat for a median of 186 days, and expired. The 31 we can verify through relisting and sale closed at a median 21.7% below their original ask after 310 total days on market. The pattern held across every price tier and property type we measured: no segment escaped the penalty, and no variation of the "cut during the failing listing" strategy meaningfully changed the outcome. The only intervention that reliably changes the trajectory is pricing correctly from day one, and the companion Pricing Cushion analysis shows that means listing within 10-15% of the demonstrable clearing price and holding firm. Forty-eight of the 180 are back on the market right now. For buyers, these represent informed negotiating opportunities. For sellers, they represent what happens when the first pricing decision is wrong.
For sellers considering a relist after expiration: Anchor to closed comps, not your prior ask. The data says your clearing price is approximately 22% below your original ask and 12% below whatever you relist at. Apply the 10-15% cushion framework to the corrected value, not the original one. If you relist at the same price or with a token reduction, the data predicts you will expire again.
For buyers evaluating relisted properties: The seller has already demonstrated pricing flexibility by accepting an expiration. The data supports opening offers 12-15% below the relist price. If the property expired after 200+ days without a cut, the seller held firm through failure, which may indicate emotional attachment to a number. Be patient. Time is on your side. Forty-eight such properties are active on the island right now, nine at $10M+.
For agents advising sellers who want to "test the market": Show them this report. 180 listings tested the market. 69% sat 180+ days. The 31 we can verify through sale closed at a median 22% discount after 310 total days. The other 101 are either still sitting, gave up, or sold off-market at undisclosed terms. "Testing" is not a strategy. It is a measured cost, and the data quantifies it.
This analysis covers 180 expired residential listings (MLS status E) in the Town of Palm Beach from January 2025 through March 2026, sourced from BeachesMLS via Spark API. The dataset includes condominiums (130), single-family residences (48), and townhouses (2).
"Expired-then-sold" matches are identified by street address plus unit number (street number + street name + suffix + unit). This unit-level matching eliminates false matches at multi-unit buildings (e.g., 100 Worth Avenue, where different condo units share the same street address). An earlier analysis using address-only matching produced 115 apparent matches; unit-level matching reduces this to 31 verified pairs. The address-only method was contaminated by different condo units at the same building being treated as the same property expiring and relisting.
The 31 verified matches are a conservative floor. Additional expired listings may have sold off-market (not captured in MLS closed data), may close after the dataset's March 2026 cutoff, or may have sold under a different MLS listing number that does not match on address. The 48 relisted-as-active count and the 101 unmatched count will both change over time as more properties transact.
Some addresses appear multiple times in the expired dataset (a listing that expired, relisted, and expired again). In those cases, the "original ask" is the highest original list price from the earliest expired listing for that address+unit, and "total DOM" aggregates all expired and active periods.
Carrying cost is estimated at 2.5% of the eventual sale price annually, applied over total DOM (expired period + relist-to-close period). Actual carrying costs vary by property and include property tax, insurance, maintenance, HOA (if applicable), and opportunity cost of capital.
"Did not cut" means the original list price equals the final list price at the time the listing expired (no price reductions in MLS history during that listing period). "Cut before expiring" means at least one price reduction was recorded. Among the 31 verified matches, cutters (n=21) showed a 21.3% median discount vs. 23.4% for holders (n=10), a difference of 2.1 percentage points. On a $5M property, 2.1 points is approximately $105,000. The tradeoff is real but modest, and cutting added 12 days of additional DOM.
Sample sizes per price tier are small (6-11 per tier). Tier-level findings are directional and should not be treated as statistically robust. The aggregate findings (21.7% median discount, 310 median total DOM) carry more weight.
The Pricing Cushion comparison references a companion analysis of 306 closed sales on Palm Beach island during the same period. That report found a 10-15% intentional cushion (no price cuts, held firm) produced a median 44-day DOM at 89% L/S against original ask.
Transaction Data: BeachesMLS via Spark API, expired and closed residential listings in the Town of Palm Beach, January 2025 - March 2026. Exported March 2026.
Pricing Cushion Analysis: Palm Beach Luxury, "The Pricing Cushion: What 306 Palm Beach Sales Reveal About Listing Strategy," 2026. Based on closed sales from the same BeachesMLS dataset.
Carrying Cost Estimates: Practitioner observation, Palm Beach County residential properties, 2025-2026. Not sourced from a published index.
