Thirteen Sales Above $15 Million: Asking Price and Result in Jupiter’s Two Clubs

The Thirteen Sales

The chart reads left to right as a negotiation. The open circle is the last asking price. The square is the sale. The line between them is what the seller gave up. Short lines are sellers who priced near the market. Long lines are sellers who did not. The two tan squares are sales that never appeared on the MLS. Those listings expired and the homes sold privately, at prices that exist only in the county deed record.

The table carries the detail behind each row: the size of the home and the days the final listing spent on the market before it went under contract.

Two Ways to Ask

Sort the thirteen by how far the asking price sat from the previous sales of the same product, and two groups appear. The first group priced near the market. The $17 million sale at 103 Bear's Club in March 2024 asked $18.5 million and received 92 percent in 68 days. The two 2025 Spinnaker Lane sales in Admirals Cove asked $21.8 million and $17.99 million. They received 96 and 97 percent, one of them in 26 days. The $41 million sale at 118 Bear's Club asked $44 million and received 93 percent in 29 days. Four more sales asked a moderate premium and paid for it in ordinary ways. They are 124 Bear's Club at 88 percent and 228 at 87 percent. The $48 million record closed at 83 percent of a $58 million asking price, and 126 Spinnaker closed at 82 percent.

The second group priced well above recent sales. The outcomes were worse in three different ways. The 2025 build at 185 Bear's Club opened at $25 million and was reduced to $21.9 million. It sold after 187 days for $15.5 million. That is 71 percent of the final asking price and 62 percent of the original. The home at 136 Bear's Club opened at $32.5 million and was reduced to $27.5 million. It sold after 461 days for $19.6 million. That is 71 percent of the final asking price and below what the seller paid in 2023. The new home at 217 Commodore Drive in Admirals Cove asked $36 million. It sold in sixteen days for $23 million, 64 percent of the asking price. That last case is the instructive one. A fast sale at a deep discount means the buyer pool knew the market price immediately. The asking price simply had not been set there.

The third outcome is the expired listing. Two homes asked prices the market did not meet. The listings lapsed, and the homes then sold privately below the old asking price. The home at 232 Bear's Club sold for $17.65 million against an $18.975 million listing. The home at 146 Bear's Club sold for $18.965 million against a $24.775 million listing. Our overpricing tax study measured the same pattern across the county at lower price points. At $15 million and up, the sample is small and the pattern is sharper.

The 118 Bear's Club Sequence

The house at 118 Bear's Club shows how the sequence works when a seller is early rather than wrong. At 23,029 square feet on nearly three acres, it is the largest home in the community. Its owners listed it in September 2019 at $21.9 million. At that point no Bear's Club sale had ever cleared $11 million. They relisted in November 2021 at $30 million and raised the asking price to $42 million as the market moved. They listed again in June 2024 at $42 million and withdrew in April 2025. Then the $48 million sale at 152 Bear's Club in February 2025 reset the community's record. They relisted at $44 million that November. The home went under contract in 29 days and closed at $41 million.

Six years and four listings sat between the first asking price and the sale. The asking price did not come down to meet the market. The market came up to meet the asking price, and the sale happened within weeks of that moment. That is the patient version of pricing ahead of the record. It worked because the record moved. The cost was six years of carrying a 23,000 square foot house. Most sellers cannot or will not pay that.

The Sales the MLS Never Saw

Two of the thirteen sales exist only in the deed record. In October 2024, 232 Bear's Club sold privately for $17.65 million after its $18.975 million listing expired. In November 2025, 146 Bear's Club sold privately for $18.965 million after a listing at $24.775 million expired. Neither transfer appears on the MLS. Neither appears in a standard comparable search. Both change the picture. The 232 sale, at $2,034 per foot, was the highest rate in the community in 2024. The 146 sale sits inside the resale range. It is a better comparable for most Bear's Club estates than the $48 million record.

Reading the deed record parcel by parcel also settles a figure in circulation. A $53 million Bear's Club transaction is sometimes mentioned. No transfer above $48 million exists in the recorded deeds along Bear's Club Drive, on or off the market. The number matches the current asking price at 215 Bear's Club Drive, $52.9 million for a new build delivering in 2027. That listing has not sold. Our Bear's Club sales history carries the full transaction record, and the two private sales are now noted there.

What Sellers and Buyers Take From It

For sellers, the thirteen sales point to one rule. Price to the last three sales of your product, not to the next record. Four sellers did that and kept 92 to 97 percent of their asking price. Three of them sold within ten weeks. Three sellers priced well ahead of recent sales and kept 64 to 71 percent. Two more let their listings expire and sold privately below the old asking price. The exception, 118 Bear's Club, waited six years for the record to arrive. If you can wait that long, pricing ahead can work. If you cannot, it has cost sellers at this level between 13 and 36 percent of the asking price.

For buyers, the asking price history is the negotiating map. A listing priced within a few percent of recent comparable sales has closed near its asking price, and quickly. There is little room and less time. A listing priced far above recent sales has closed at 64 to 71 percent, or not at all. The days on market tell you which stage of that process you are entering. Ask for the full listing history before you frame an offer, including expired and withdrawn periods. At $15 million and up, the history is usually longer than the current listing suggests. Our companion report on the $3,000 question maps where the ceiling and floor sit in each community. Our seller page and buyer page describe how we run the pricing conversation on each side.