The Bears Club is a gated golf community of approximately 68 custom estate lots in Jupiter's interior, designed by Jack Nicklaus on 488 acres. Supply is structurally constrained. No comparable product exists in northern Palm Beach County by lot size, architectural covenant or course access, and new inventory requires an existing lot to come to market. That constraint is the foundation of the price story this data tells.
The Complete Transaction Record
Thirty-three sales, $439.5 million in volume, a price range from $4.8 million to $48 million. Those top-line numbers tell one story, and they come from the multiple listing service (MLS). The public record adds two private transfers that never appeared on the MLS. They are $17.65 million at 232 Bears Club Drive in October 2024 and $18.965 million at 146 Bears Club Drive in November 2025. This report notes them where they matter and excludes them from the yearly MLS figures. The year-by-year breakdown tells another: neither 2016 nor 2022 produced a single estate sale, and the year that followed the 2022 gap produced the community's highest prices to that point. A third data layer, the active listings on the market right now, tells a third story about where prices are heading.
Every Bears Club Transaction, 2015-2026
All 33 closed estate sales plotted chronologically by price per square foot. Color indicates market phase.
Each point is one closed sale. The 2022 gap (zero transactions) is visible in the data. The post-2022 cluster represents a structurally higher price floor. Only one post-2022 transaction has closed below $1,200/SF: 148 Bears Club Drive in April 2024 at $726/SF, a 13,780 SF estate with an unusual 9-bedroom configuration.
Note on 2025 avg $/SF: The $1,935/SF annual average is significantly influenced by the $48M sale at 152 Bears Club Drive ($2,938/SF). Excluding that transaction, the three 2025 closes averaged $1,434/SF, still the community's second-highest annual average and consistent with the broader post-2022 repricing.
The Pre-COVID Market, 2015-2019: Establishing the Address
The Bears Club's pre-COVID transaction record runs eight estate sales from January 2015 through December 2019, generating $53.0 million at an average of $725 per square foot. It reflects a market that was active but not yet repriced. Estate homes traded in the $5.3 million to $8.3 million range. The largest home to trade in that window (191 Bears Club Drive, 12,555 SF) closed at $7.55 million in June 2017, at $601 per square foot. The same home today, in the same condition, would trade at a materially different number.
Two Address Tiers Within Bears Club Main
Estate Homes: 100-200 Series
Cluster Homes: 400 Series
The 2016 gap illustrates how thin the early estate market was. No estate home closed that year at all: the community's 2016 activity was confined to cluster product, which this report excludes. The five estate closes of 2015 and 2017 cleared at $579-$926/SF. The 2015 group was 119 Bears Club ($5.38M / $651/SF), 115 Bears Club ($5.65M / $579/SF) and 170 Bears Club ($5.31M / $809/SF). Then came 103 Bears Club ($8.3M / $926/SF) and 191 Bears Club ($7.55M / $601/SF) in 2017. A market producing two or three sales a year is one where a single transaction can move the annual average, which is worth remembering when reading the year-by-year table.
Pre-COVID $/SF by Transaction (2015-2019)
Eight estate sales, 2015 through 2019, plotted by $/SF.
Simple average $725/SF, volume-weighted $716/SF. The tier appreciated substantially in the post-2022 era.
The standout in the pre-COVID record is 103 Bears Club Drive, a 5-bedroom, 8,961 SF home on a 0.9-acre lot built in 2016. It closed at $8.3 million ($926/SF) in March 2017. That $/SF figure was an outlier at the time, running 30-40% above the community's concurrent estate home transactions. It was not an outlier relative to where the market would go. Seven years later, in March 2024, the same address sold again for $17 million.
The Transition Years, 2020-2021: The First Repricing
Eight transactions between January 2020 and August 2021 produced $59.5 million at an average of $795 per square foot. That is a 10% increase over the pre-COVID estate average in under two years. The 2020 acceleration was the first leg of what would become a structural repricing. Six sales in a single calendar year was the community's highest annual transaction count on record at that point, and the price architecture was shifting. Four of those six closed above $6.8 million. The year's largest transaction was 161 Bears Club Drive at $10 million, the community's first-ever eight-figure close.
The 2021 transactions completed the pre-gap arc. First 111 Bears Club Drive closed at $8.75 million in May ($801/SF). Then 166 Bears Club Drive closed at $8.5 million in August, at $1,079 per square foot, the first time any Bears Club property had traded above $1,000/SF. That number would become the community's entry point in the post-2022 market.
When 166 Bears Club Drive closed at $8.5 million in August 2021, the $1,079/SF figure represented a 17% premium over any prior recorded transaction in the community. It was either an outlier or an early indication that the Bears Club's price ceiling had shifted. What happened in 2023, when the market reopened after the 2022 gap at $1,210/SF as its entry point, confirmed it was the latter.
The 2022 Gap: Zero Transactions
The Bears Club recorded zero closed sales in calendar year 2022. It is one of two zero-sale years in the estate record, and the more telling one: 2016 reflected a thin early market, while 2022 was inventory withheld into a repricing. Rather than distress, it reflects more potential sellers reassessing their position than buyers willing to pay at then-current levels. Rising interest rates were slowing luxury transaction volume across South Florida at the time.
The mechanism matters for interpretation: the properties didn't lose value in 2022. They simply didn't transact. The sellers who chose not to sell in 2022 and waited for 2023 or 2024 were, in most cases, correct to do so. The three estate sales that closed in 2023 ranged from $7.5 million to $19.8 million at $1,210-$1,470/SF. The 2022 gap was an inventory withholding that preceded a repricing rather than a correction.
The Repricing, 2023-2026: What the Market Has Assigned
Seventeen transactions between January 2023 and August 2026 have produced $327.0 million. The average $/SF for this cohort is $1,669. The range runs from $726/SF to $3,099/SF. Every transaction except one has closed at $1,210/SF or above.
The Repricing: Avg $/SF by Year
Annual average $/SF, all Bears Club transactions. The 2022 gap and subsequent acceleration are visible in the data.
The 2025 bar reflects $1,935/SF including the $48M sale at 152 Bears Club Drive. Dashed line shows $1,434/SF, the 2025 average excluding that transaction. The 2026 average of $1,927/SF is similarly shaped by the $41M and $33.8M sales. Neither figure is more "correct," but the distinction matters for buyer comparables.
The one post-2022 exception to the $1,200+/SF floor is 148 Bears Club Drive, which closed at $10 million ($726/SF) in April 2024. That property is a 13,780 SF estate on a 1.25-acre lot built in 2001, the oldest and largest home in the post-2022 dataset. Its nine-bedroom configuration, age, and size (which mathematically compresses per-foot pricing on large properties) explain the deviation. Treat it as a specific transaction, not evidence of a sub-$1,000/SF market at Bears Club. The sale reflects the discount the market applies to large, dated homes requiring capital investment.
The address 162 Bears Club Drive has now appeared in the transaction record three times: $7,800,000 (Mar 2020) → $14,500,000 (Oct 2023) → $15,292,470 (Dec 2024). The same property produced $7.49M in appreciation across two resales in four years.
The sale at 118 Bears Club Drive closed February 27, 2026 at $41,000,000, the community's second-highest on record. The property was first listed in September 2019 at $21.9M and relisted multiple times at rising prices. The final listing, at $44M, went under contract in 29 days and closed at 93.2% of the asking price. Its close is the clearest example in this dataset of a seller whose price thesis was correct but whose timing was early.
Repeat Sales: The Appreciation Record
Six properties in the Bears Club dataset (103 / 107 / 124 / 136 / 158 / 162 Bears Club Drive) have sold more than once since 2015. They provide the clearest arm's-length evidence of appreciation within the community. Two of them, 103 Bears Club Drive and 162 Bears Club Drive, represent the most instructive case studies in the record.
The 103 Bears Club Drive story covers the full arc: a 2017 purchase at $926/SF, already above the community's contemporary average, followed by a 2024 sale at $1,868/SF. The property was built in 2016 (one year old at first sale) and has been renovated since. The $8.7 million gross gain over seven years is not purely passive appreciation. It includes capital improvement. But the $/SF gain of +$942 came as the market moved from a $760/SF average to a $1,669/SF average. It captures what happens when a well-positioned asset holds its position in a repricing market.
The 162 Bears Club Drive record is the more analytically useful case. Three arm's-length sales on the same 9,865 SF, 2010-vintage home in under five years: $7.8M → $14.5M → $15.29M. The March 2020 buyer paid $791/SF into a market no one had repriced yet. The October 2023 buyer paid $1,470/SF, a figure that was, at that moment, the community's second-highest $/SF on record. The December 2024 buyer paid $1,550/SF, a further 5.4% premium in 14 months on the same property. Each successive buyer has been correct about the directional trend, and each paid more for the confidence of doing so.
The 2026 sales added two more pairs, and they point in opposite directions. The buyer of 124 Bears Club Drive paid $13.38 million in June 2024 and sold for $18.5 million in March 2026, a 38 percent gain in 21 months. The buyer of 136 Bears Club Drive paid $19.8 million in March 2023 and asked as much as $32.5 million. The March 2026 sale at $19.61 million is the only negative round trip of the post-2022 era. The record also includes 158 Bears Club Drive, which doubled from $6 million in 2019 to $12 million in 2024. And 107 Bears Club Drive dipped from $7.4 million in 2019 to $6.81 million in 2020 before selling for $14.5 million in 2025.
The $48 Million Record: 152 Bears Club Drive
On February 18, 2025, 152 Bears Club Drive closed at $48,000,000. It is the highest residential sale price ever recorded at The Bears Club and the highest in Jupiter's MLS history. It held the community's price-per-square-foot record at $2,938/SF until July 2026, when 228 Bears Club Drive closed at $3,099/SF. The property was listed in October 2024 at $58 million, went under contract in 71 days, and sold for cash at an 82.8% list-to-sale ratio, the sale price as a share of the original asking price.
Several aspects of this transaction are worth examining carefully. The property is non-waterfront, positioned on a golf course interior lot. The $2,938/SF record was set on a property outside the community's most sought-after lot type, one built four years before the sale and designed and finished to a specification the Bears Club market had not previously seen at scale. The estate holds 25,518 total square feet on 2.4 acres. Inside are a resort-style pool complex, a lap pool and a fitness center, plus a salon and spa, a golf simulator and multiple entertainment venues. The record is partly an address premium, partly a spec premium, and partly what happens when a finished product has essentially no peer comparables.
The gap between the $48 million record and the community's next-highest sale has narrowed substantially. In February 2026, 118 Bears Club Drive closed at $41 million: a 23,029 SF, 7BR estate on 2.91 acres built in 2010. That close reduces the gap from the record to the next transaction from $28.2 million to $7 million. There are now two Bears Club transactions above $40 million, which tells you something different than a single outlier would. There is a market at this level, not just a single event. The more representative post-2022 Bears Club estate transaction is in the $12-$19.6 million range, at $1,316-$1,868/SF, on 8,000-12,400 SF of living area. That is the market the data actually supports.
The $48M close at 152 Bears Club, the $41M close at 118 and the $33.8M close at 228 together establish a three-transaction ultra-tier. It validates the community's price ceiling while remaining distinct from the standard estate market. For a buyer evaluating a $13-18M Bears Club estate, the relevant data point is not any of those figures but the range produced by 103 / 124 / 136 / 150 / 156 / 158 / 162 Bears Club in 2024-2026, at $1,316-$1,868/SF. The record sales prove the address. The standard resales are the comparable sales that set the price.
Top 10 Sales by Price
The ten highest-priced Bears Club transactions in MLS history, 2015-2026.
The $48M record at #1 is 17% above the #2 sale ($41M at 118 Bears Club Drive, Feb 2026). The July 2026 sale at 228 Bears Club Drive ($33.8M) makes a third transaction above $30 million. The #4 through #10 range ($14.5M-$19.8M) represents the community's established estate tier and provides the most relevant comparable set for current buyers.
The Market Right Now
The closed transaction record is backward-looking by definition, but 2026 gave it a forward test. The March edition of this report tracked three pending contracts whose asks, if confirmed, would have reset the community's comparable set. All three have since closed, and the way they closed answers the question that edition posed. In August 2026 no estate is under contract, and six listing records (five properties) are active.
The March edition flagged the contracts at 136 and 124 Bears Club Drive as potential step-changes. Their asking prices of $2,221 and $2,067 per square foot would have moved the resale ceiling up from $1,868 if confirmed. Neither confirmed. The home at 136 closed at $1,584/SF, 29 percent below its ask and slightly under its own 2023 purchase price. The home at 124 closed at $1,821/SF, a strong result and a 38 percent gain over its 2024 basis, but still inside the range the closed record already supported. The one 2026 sale that did break the ceiling, 228 Bears Club Drive at $3,099/SF, was a 2024-built waterfront home: new construction, not a resale comp. The resale ceiling remains $1,868/SF (103 Bears Club Drive, March 2024).
The active inventory spans $12.9 million to $52.9 million. At the top, 215 Bears Club Drive asks $52.9 million for a 15,075 SF waterfront home scheduled for 2027 completion. It was listed in March 2026 at $47.9 million and raised to $52.9 million, and now asks $3,509/SF, 13 percent above the record set at 228 in July. At the entry point, two listings are priced inside the closed resale range. They are 135 Bears Club Drive at $12.9 million ($1,522/SF) and 131 Bears Club Drive at $15.95 million ($1,862/SF) after two years of reductions.
Negotiation Context: Days on Market and Pricing
List-to-sale ratios at Bears Club are widely misread. The post-2022 average of 87.0% sounds like buyers have meaningful negotiating room, more than the pre-COVID 91.1% average. The average obscures what actually determines your position. Well-priced modern product in this market clears quickly and close to ask. Overpriced or dated product either discounts significantly or sits until the seller adjusts. The days on market (DOM) number tells you which situation you're walking into before you make an offer.
List-to-Sale Ratio and Days on Market by Market Era
Pre-COVID · 2015-2019
average list-to-sale ratio · 8 sales
Post-2022 · 2023-2026
average list-to-sale ratio · 17 sales
The split within the post-2022 cohort is the operative data point. The nine properties that sold within 90 days averaged an 89.2% list-to-sale ratio. The eight that took longer averaged 84.4%, and the deepest discounts in the record (70.7% at 185 Bears Club, 71.3% at 136) closed out the longest campaigns. DOM works as more than a marketing metric at this tier. It is the single best predictor of how much room exists in a negotiation. A property at 30 DOM is a different negotiation than the same property at 200 DOM, regardless of the asking price.
One pattern holds across all eras. Properties with unusual characteristics (large footprint with older vintage, non-standard bedroom count or heavy required capital investment) consistently discount more and take longer. The post-2022 examples are 148 Bears Club Drive (9BR / built 2001 / 161 days / 91.7% L/S) and 185 Bears Club Drive (187 days / 70.7% L/S / listed $21.9M, sold $15.49M). The discount reflects the renovation premium the next buyer will spend, not a bearish signal on the community.
Bottom Line
The intro posed two questions. Here is what the data says.
If you are buying: the resale comp set runs $1,316-$1,868 per square foot on standard estate product (2024-2026 sales). Your negotiating position turns on how long the specific property has been listed, not on the market-wide average: sub-90-day properties at Bears Club average 89% of ask, and the longest campaigns have closed at 71%. Check DOM before you frame an offer.
If you are selling: the closed record supports $1,316-$1,868 per square foot on resale product today. The asks that tested $2,000+ per square foot in 2026 closed at $1,584-$1,821. Unless your home is new construction, the resale band is the market. The tier above it ($2,938 and $3,099 per square foot) has been reached only by 2021-and-later builds.
For buyers at Bears Club: price against the closed record, not the asks. The 2026 test cases closed 7 to 29 percent below their final asks, and your resale comp anchor is $1,316-$1,868/SF. DOM is your leverage signal: under 90 days means limited room, and past 180 days the record shows sellers accept materially less.
For sellers at Bears Club: price to the closed comp set and prepare for a 90-day process. The sellers who priced to the comparable set in the post-2022 era cleared quickly and near ask. The ones who priced above it averaged 84% of the asking price after long campaigns. The 2026 closings confirmed that waiting for a higher tier did not produce one, and the resale ceiling held at $1,868/SF. Only new construction has traded above it.
On the 87% average list-to-sale ratio: it is misleading as a negotiating benchmark. The post-2022 Bears Club market runs at 87% only as a blend of two markets: product priced to the comp set closing quickly and near ask, and overpriced or dated product discounting to the low 80s or below after long exposure. Which market you are in depends on the asking price, not the address.
Scope: All 33 closed estate-home sale transactions at The Bears Club, Jupiter, FL recorded in BeachesMLS between January 2015 and August 2026. Two further transfers exist only in the Palm Beach County deed record, recorded after the prior listings expired. One is 232 Bears Club Drive at $17,650,000 in October 2024, at $2,034 per square foot the community's highest rate that year. The other is 146 Bears Club Drive at $18,965,000 in November 2025. They are excluded from the MLS-based tables and charts above and covered in our top-of-market report. The recorded deed at 118 Bears Club Drive shows $34,290,500 against the MLS close of $41,000,000. This report uses the MLS price. This edition covers the estate tier only: custom single-family homes on the Bears Club Drive corridor. Cluster homes (400-series addresses), Bears Club Villas Condominium, and Bears Club Golf Villas Condominium product are excluded. Earlier editions blended cluster-home sales into the totals, and this edition separates them. Trump National Jupiter, Ritz Carlton Golf Club & Spa, and Eagle Tree communities are excluded entirely. See the Bears Club Villas buyer's guide for the villa product analysis.
Data source: BeachesMLS (Beaches Multiple Listing Service), extracted August 2026. All 33 closed estate sale transactions at The Bears Club, Jupiter, FL, January 2015 through August 2026. This report covers Bears Club main estate homes only. Bears Club Villas and Trump National Jupiter / Ritz Carlton Golf Club properties are separate communities with distinct pricing and HOA structures. Data contains no records from any other community or submarket.
Closed sales only. This report analyzes closed transactions. The Bears Club listing history includes properties that were listed, in some cases years before the market reached their asking prices, but did not result in a sale. Those listings are excluded here. A separate article, the Bears Club unsold listings analysis, examines the full listing history, including the sellers who listed early and were eventually vindicated by the repricing.
$/SF calculations: All $/SF figures use the MLS "Sold Price/SqFt" field, calculated against MLS "SqFt - Living" (enclosed conditioned space). Total SF figures (including covered outdoor areas) are referenced in narrative where available but are not used for $/SF calculations.
Address tiers: "Estate homes" refers to properties at 100-200 series addresses on Bears Club Drive (custom single-family homes on lots of 0.81-2.40 acres). "Cluster homes" refers to properties at 400-series addresses (attached or semi-attached product, 3,225-4,800 SF living area, higher HOA per unit reflecting shared amenity costs). Cluster homes are excluded from all aggregate figures in this edition.
SF discrepancy at 103 Bears Club Drive: the 2017 sale record shows 8,961 SF living area. The 2024 record shows 9,100 SF, a 139 SF difference likely reflecting an addition or remeasurement. Both figures are sourced from their respective MLS records and used for their respective $/SF calculations.
Repeat sales appreciation: gross appreciation figures are based on sale prices only. They do not account for capital improvements, renovation costs, carrying costs, closing costs or financing. These are gross price changes, not net investment returns.
Exact price at 162 Bears Club Drive: the December 2024 sale closed at $15,292,470, the MLS-recorded figure. Prior references in this report to "$15.3M" are rounded for readability. The exact figure is used in the repeat sales analysis.
The 118 Bears Club Drive close: February 27, 2026 at $41,000,000. Listed September 2019 at $21.9M, relisted November 2021 at $30M rising to $42M, relisted June 2024 at $42M (withdrawn April 2025), relisted November 2025 at $44M. Sold in 29 days at 93.2% of final list price. The property is 23,029 SF living area, 7BR, built 2010, on 2.91 acres. The 2026 close validates the seller's original 2019 price thesis: the market simply required five years to reach it.
On 119 Bears Club Drive: the January 2015 close ($5,375,000 / 8,251 SF / $651/SF) was in the MLS dataset. Earlier versions of this analysis missed it due to a data extraction error. It is included in the current dataset and all figures reflect its inclusion.
BeachesMLS (Beaches Multiple Listing Service): primary data source for all transaction records, list prices and sale prices. Square footage, bedroom counts, lot sizes and days on market come from the same records. Data exported from Flexmls, August 2026. MLS records are agent-reported and subject to occasional measurement discrepancies. Notable discrepancies are noted in this report.
Palm Beach County Property Appraiser (pbcgov.com/papa): Secondary source for parcel IDs, lot dimensions, legal descriptions, and assessed values where referenced. PAPA data and MLS data occasionally differ on year built and square footage due to different measurement conventions. MLS figures are used for all $/SF calculations in this report.
$/SF definition: All $/SF figures in this report are calculated against MLS "SqFt - Living" (conditioned, enclosed living area) unless otherwise stated. Total SF figures (which include covered outdoor areas, garages, and non-conditioned space) are referenced in narrative context only and are not used for any comparative analysis.
Status codes: C = Closed (completed sale). A = Active listing. E = Expired (listing expired without a sale). L = Cancelled. W = Withdrawn. P = Pending (under contract, not yet closed).
Scope exclusions: Trump National Jupiter (formerly Ritz-Carlton Golf Club and Spa) and Eagle Tree at Trump National are excluded from all figures. So are Bears Club Villas Condominium and Bears Club Golf Villas Condominium. These communities share the Bears Club Drive address corridor but are distinct products with separate HOAs, pricing structures, and market dynamics.
